by
Nicolas Besrggruen*
The fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, Al Qaeda or other jihadi terrorist groups is not going to make or break America. When the West overreacts to their attacks, the jihadis win. We have too often been played by the terrorists, who, like judo fighters, leverage our own strength against us with minimal effort and sustainable capacity. Tragic as it is, the situation in the Middle East is, in the end, a matter for battling local and regional players to settle. Have we not learned from 15 years of war after 9/11, only to see the rise of ISIS, that outside intervention is counterproductive?
For the first time since the end of the Cold War, two major world powers with distinctly different cultural and political orientations — the U.S. and China — are contending to shape the global order. By lifting itself out of poverty and rising to the top ranks of the world economy, China has enabled other emerging countries to grow and has become an indispensable engine for global prosperity in the decades ahead.
The 21st century will only find peace and security if America and China work together and do not become enemies. To avoid that historic blunder, mutual respect and understanding need to be built through a working relationship between the next U.S. president and China’s President Xi Jinping.
While standing firm on American interests such as cyber defense and opposition to changing borders by force, the next U.S. president must also seek to avert pushing China and Russia into a more formal alliance. Russia, like the U.S. itself, isrefurbishing its nuclear arsenal.
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The worst geopolitical development would be for the world to break up once again into rigid bloc systems fortified by a new nuclear arms race. Even if the ethical calculus is not clean, working with Russia is also essential for global security. In many ways, President Putin just wants respect. And the next U.S. president should grant that respect with no less illusions than during the stable years of détente with the Soviet Union.
For the West to remain strong in facing this new competition with the East, the U.S. needs a powerful civilizational ally in Europe. Europe today, however, is no longer functional as a reliable partner. On the contrary, it is paralyzed by every crisis it faces — from Greek debt to refugees — and is disintegrating before our eyes.
As the de facto leader of the West, the next American president should press for a Europe that, at a minimum, federates fiscal and foreign policies, immigration and energy policies — in short, a common Europe that is the other pillar of the West. Otherwise America will have to rely on a series of nations, each too small to matter alone, yet each also hobbled by the straightjacket of being part of a dysfunctional European Union.
There are positive developments for the next American president to capitalize on: The Paris climate accords; lower oil prices; the chance to bring Iran back into the fold of the world; winds of change in Argentina, Venezuela and Cuba; and the olive branch that Indian Prime Minister Modi has extended to Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif in that volatile part of the world.
The next American president will face some of the greatest challenges — but also the biggest opportunities — history has to offer. The coming U.S. election could not be more consequential. Responsible voters should make the right choice by choosing a president who will focus on the right things.
*Nicolas Berggruen is a philanthropist and investor. He is the founder and president of Berggruen Holdings, a private investment company and the Berggruen Institute