COVID 19. HIV. Overpopulation. Too much C02 and any number of other harmful substances in the air, in the ground, in the seas. “Huge” fires in places as far apart as Turkey and Canada. “Unprecedented” droughts in parts of Africa. “Disappearing” glaciers. “Unbelievable” floods. “Immense” numbers of casualties. Open whatever news bulletin you choose—I myself do so several times a day, in several different languages—and the message is always the same. Following a nefarious combination of unrestrained growth and neglect, the world is on the brink of disaster. Unless “we” do something, and quickly, the bells will soon be ringing over our graves. Provided, of course, there is anyone left to dig the graves in the first place.
Far be it from me to question all this. For those who are interested, though, I have drawn up a list of the twelve largest (as measured by the number of dead) disasters in history. I take, as my non-plus ultra, the year 1945. A moment in history when the earth’s population was only about a quarter of what it is now, and decades before anyone heard of global warming and the like.
| Name of event | Year | Highest estimated number of dead |
| Antonine Plague | 165-180 | 12,000,000 |
| Plague of Justinian | 541-542 | 50,000,000 |
| Black Death | 1346-53 | 200,000,000 |
| Cocolitzli (Mexico) Epidemic | 1545-48 | 15,000,000 |
| Indian Famine | 1773-93 | 21,000,000 |
| Third Plague Pandemic | 1855-1945 | 12,000,000 |
| Chinese Famine | 1876-79 | 13,000,000 |
| Chinese Famine | 1907 | 25,000,000 |
| Spanish Flu | 1918-20 | 50,000,000 |
| Chinese Floods | 1931-35 | 42,000,000 |
| Now to the post-1945 figures. They are as follows: | ||
| Great Chinese Famine | 1958-61 | 55,000,000 |
| HIV | 1981- | 35,000,000 |
| COVID | 2021-21 | 4,000,000 |
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Both before and after 1945, all the rest were much smaller. As the Talmud says, each person is a world unto him (or, for God’s sake, her) self. Statistics are the most heartless form of knowledge; the amount of suffering they contain or, if one prefers, conceal is both immeasurable and endlessly varied. Still, two conclusions follow from all this. First, the most deadly events of all have always been disease, famine, and floods; by contrast earthquakes, eruptions, tsunamis, avalanches, various kinds of storms, heatwaves, fires, etc. hardly count. Second, adjusted for the earth’s population as it was at the time it occurred, almost any one of the pre-1945 figures far exceeds those pertaining to the post-1945 period.
And still mankind survived. Do I have to say more?