Right from the day when mysterious leaks appeared in Nord Stream 2, the pipeline that enables Russian gas to reach consumers in Western Europe, the question “who done it?” has been very much in the air.

It could be Putin. After all, he is well known to be a bad, bad man; with the result that when anything unpleasant happens people are likely to blame it on him. However, as these lines are being written on 28 September there appears to be not the slightest proof that he had a spoon (or a fork, for that matter) in the broth. Not a hint.

As Putin’s Ukrainian adventure proves, he is as liable to error as the rest of us. Still, given that he is already in full control both of the wells where the gas is being pumped out of the ground and the upstream valves through which it passes, I find it difficult to imagine any benefit he could draw from disrupting those lines. Perhaps to the contrary; should he or any of his successors one day wish to reopen the lines, which after all constitute an important source of revenue for Russia, they will find that doing so will be considerably more difficult, expensive, and time consuming.

It could be some terrorist organization. Long before the Ukrainian War broke out, the benefits of Nord Stream 2 were hotly debated in Western Europe, Germany in particular. People denounced Nord Stream for the same reason as they do so many other things; the impact on the environment, the need to leave some resources for the next generation, and so on. The difficulty with this interpretation is, first, that there is no proof for it. Second, that it would require very considerable technical expertise and preparation; and third that, had it been correct, the responsible organization would almost certainly have been more than ready to claim credit. After all, the lives of such organizations, their very existence, depends on the publicity they can get. Yet so far not one of them has tried to do so.

For much of the rest of the world—Africa, Asia, Australia, Latin America—the issue is marginal. They have more important things to worry about than whether or not many, often elderly, Germans will spend the coming winter freezing in their homes. This leaves North America and, specifically, the US. For a number of years now the US, which starting in 1948 became a net importer of energy, has switched positions and started exporting it. Most of the exports consist of natural gas, a commodity of which the US is the world’s second largest supplier after Russia.

In dealing with its NATO allies, the US has never hidden its distaste for a pipeline that would fill Putin’s pocket while at the same time increasing those allies’ dependence on Moscow and thus make them more vulnerable to the Russian dictator’s demands. Such being the case, is it possible to imagine that its secret services, specifically the CIA, have something to do with the leak? While there is no proof of any kind, there have been two incidents that raised eyebrows. Or should have.

The first came from Victoria Nuland, Biden’s undersecretary of state for political affairs and thus a key player at Foggy Bottom. On 27 January 2022, i.e well before the beginning of the Russian invasion, she said that “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.” At the time, most people took the statement as a prediction of events to come. Looking back it may well have implied a threat, however veiled.

The second came from President Biden himself and was much more explicit. Speaking at a White House press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, held on 7 February, he said: “If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.” Reporter: “But how will you do that, exactly, since…the project is in Germany’s control?” Biden: “I promise you, we will be able to do that.”

Enough said.

* Thanks to my good friend, Larry Kummer, for inspiring this post.